USOIL Analysis

The US Fed moderated the pace of tightening, raising its terminal rate projection, while lowering its GDP forecasts, now expecting an anemic growth of 0.5% in the next year . This hawkish stance by the central bank of the world’s largest consumer of oil, along with similar approach by the ECB weighed on oil prices, but USOil managed to overcome those pressures.

Helped by encouraging demand forecasts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), it managed to close last week with profits. During the current week it extends its gains, as US crude oil inventories registered a surprise drop of 5.9 million barrels last week, according to yesterday’s data.

USOil now tries to take out a critical confluence of hurdles, posed by the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the November high/December low drop. Successful effort will open the door to 84.70, but taking that level out and looking towards 90.00 may prove elusive in the near term.

Aggressive stance by major central banks, prospect of an economic slowdown and the Covid-19 situation in China, which remains tough, may limit the upside. Furthermore, the Relative Strength index is at the most overbought levels in two months. As such, USOil is vulnerable to pressure back to mid-73.00s, but sustained weakness below the 70.00 handle continues to look difficult.

Markets now turn a series of key economic releases from the US, which includes today’s final Q3 GDP and the PCE Inflation report tomorrow, for the next leg of the move.

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